OK, turns out the whole reason for coming to blogger has been shot to hell. I thought the credit card on file for my GoDaddy account had expired so my domain would not auto-renew. But actually my Paypal account was used for payment, so I bought myself 2 more years of hosting! Since I'm paying for hosting, I may as well use it!
(Plus I get to use WordPress which is probably better...)
CONTINUE TO WHIPPLEBOX.COM
Monday, December 13, 2010
Friday, November 12, 2010
New Record
Today I achieved something that I've never accomplished before: I did not have one stop loss get hit. Sure, I had losing trades, but I closed them all before they hit my hard stop. This really helped my performance today. There will be some times when you get shaken out of a trade too early and continues in your favor without your hard stop getting hit--but I'd prefer my winners come from trades that -immediately- go in my direction without looking back. I was correct on 5 out of 8 early closes (meaning 3 wouldn't have hit my stop, but only 1 of those 3 would have hit my take-profit, and on that one, I re-entered for the win anyway).
Closing trades that show just a couple pips of loss has always been hard for me--I mean how easy is it to just let it go 2 more pips in your favor and -then- close it out? The problem is that most likely it won't, and you'll be taking a bigger loss. So the fact that I'm showing definite progress in this area is nice.
Today's Results: +4R (+20.5 pips)
Weekly Results: +9R (+46 pips) with 38% wins (includes scratches) and win/loss size of 2.3:1.
Closing trades that show just a couple pips of loss has always been hard for me--I mean how easy is it to just let it go 2 more pips in your favor and -then- close it out? The problem is that most likely it won't, and you'll be taking a bigger loss. So the fact that I'm showing definite progress in this area is nice.
Today's Results: +4R (+20.5 pips)
Weekly Results: +9R (+46 pips) with 38% wins (includes scratches) and win/loss size of 2.3:1.
Thursday, November 11, 2010
Quality Action
Today the euro gave some good action. I dug myself in a 20-pip hole early on with some undisciplined trades. I have a bad problem with starting the day out with a loss or a few losses. In this case, I had a proper setup but entered late, which led to another failed attempt, and another. Finally I saw what price was actually doing and got on for the ride (in the other direction). I added to a winning position when I knew I was right--always a good thing to do. After another sloppy entry I got on board for the stop-blowing pop I knew was imminent and got a good move. Price then went on a wild reversal move and I caught a bear flag (which is one of my valid continuation setups) but didn't get greedy, keeping my take-profit where it should be--otherwise I would have been stopped out at breakeven (after the initial move, which is common with flags). I can't say it was solid trading today, but I got the moves according to my premise, so it was profitable overall.
Today's Results: +4.5R (+23 pips)
Today's Results: +4.5R (+23 pips)
Wednesday, November 10, 2010
Solid Patience!
Today I showed much better patience and it paid off. The euro did make some really big moves that I wasn't a part of, but even during a 100-pip move I had trouble finding a low-risk entry. My first trade I jumped the gun a little bit so I got stopped out on the throwback. Realizing that I forgot to wait for the throwback, I reentered (therefore at a better price) and booked a win. I closed the trade when price did not follow through, and although it was only 1:1, I didn't let my emotions of the recent loss prevent me from taking any profit at all (i.e. getting greedy to make up for the loss plus some) and it was good execution because price reversed at that point and would have stopped me out.
I hesitated on a couple quick moves that I could have taken in hindsight, but I was content to just watch price move in a "what if I had entered there" scenario. Besides, I was working on my patience in only looking for the best setups. I waited over an hour for my next trade, all the while studying for the GMAT, which really helped me resist taking bad setups. If you do something to preoccupy your mind, then waiting for great setups is a lot easier. I was rewarded with 2 more well-executed wins. I would have continued trading but Oanda's servers seem like they're having some trouble today so I'm not going to bother with it. At least Oanda is good at giving you the price you want when you click, even if the trade showing up on the platform lags by 15 seconds.
Today's results: +3R (+16 pips)
I hesitated on a couple quick moves that I could have taken in hindsight, but I was content to just watch price move in a "what if I had entered there" scenario. Besides, I was working on my patience in only looking for the best setups. I waited over an hour for my next trade, all the while studying for the GMAT, which really helped me resist taking bad setups. If you do something to preoccupy your mind, then waiting for great setups is a lot easier. I was rewarded with 2 more well-executed wins. I would have continued trading but Oanda's servers seem like they're having some trouble today so I'm not going to bother with it. At least Oanda is good at giving you the price you want when you click, even if the trade showing up on the platform lags by 15 seconds.
Today's results: +3R (+16 pips)
Tuesday, November 9, 2010
Bored Day = Losses
I struggled to find low-risk entries today. I did have two, but then I forced a lot of others. I need to avoid entering trades during the chop. My wins are always bigger than my losses but I'm suffering from "death by a thousand cuts." I try to predict where price will go next instead of waiting for price to actually go somewhere. The result is that when price is at equilibrium, I take every slight extension that reverts back into the chop zone. I become a victim of the "heartbeat pattern" as I like to call it. Price stagnates, then jolts one way out of the zone, then jolts the opposite way out of the zone, and then decides where to go after that. It's a typical move by wholesalers clearing out stops on either side before a true direction is decided. Unfortunately, when I watch charts for hours on end without getting my setup, I fall victim to these traps. There were 3 good opportunities presented today, and I took 2 of them (the third was more risky and did not yield a very good move). Unfortunately, I decided to get whipped about 9 other times, including a trade I took while writing this. It seems valid, but of course volume has decreased (noon EST) so we'll just call it another loss!
Today's results: -4R
Today's results: -4R
Monday, November 8, 2010
Slight Rant
Today I fired up the ol smoker and smoked a chicken and a sausage loaf as a dry (or moist) run for Thanksgiving...I must say, whoever has me over for their turkey-day meal is lucky. That giblet gravy sure topped off the meat n potatoes...
But on to the rant against Fox News. I don't understand how they are legally allowed to call themselves "news". There is no other media outlet that is so biased and false -- and I don't understand how people are so delusional that they actually think it's anything but comedy. I don't want this to be a political blog, but take the following for example: recently Fox News got all excited about how the president's visit to India will cost $200 million a day with the dozens of planes and thousands in his entourage. Except that then the real news outlets showed that the ENTIRE WAR IN AFGHANISTAN costs less than $200 million a day. I get so riled up at how these people are allowed to make up fake facts and spew them to the ignorant. This is why people hate our country. This is why we're falling behind in the world. It's because we're not working to get better--we're promoting a circle-jerk of ignorance. Then a few minutes after I get riled up, I forget about it and move on to something else because the tidal wave of ignorance is way to powerful to try to stop. You guys knew I was looking forward to Armageddon, right?
But on to the rant against Fox News. I don't understand how they are legally allowed to call themselves "news". There is no other media outlet that is so biased and false -- and I don't understand how people are so delusional that they actually think it's anything but comedy. I don't want this to be a political blog, but take the following for example: recently Fox News got all excited about how the president's visit to India will cost $200 million a day with the dozens of planes and thousands in his entourage. Except that then the real news outlets showed that the ENTIRE WAR IN AFGHANISTAN costs less than $200 million a day. I get so riled up at how these people are allowed to make up fake facts and spew them to the ignorant. This is why people hate our country. This is why we're falling behind in the world. It's because we're not working to get better--we're promoting a circle-jerk of ignorance. Then a few minutes after I get riled up, I forget about it and move on to something else because the tidal wave of ignorance is way to powerful to try to stop. You guys knew I was looking forward to Armageddon, right?
Slippy Monday
It was a tough battle, but I managed to profit today. I missed 2 trades early on, but they were really only good in hindsight. I let boredom sucker me into a bad trade, and then took what was probably a revenge trade shortly after, so I started out with 2 losses. I was upset at myself for not closing them each for 1/2R when I knew they were losers. I just sat there hoping my stop wouldn't get hit, which of course it did. I scratched a third entry (this time determined to kill a trade before taking a full stop) but then entered again when it looked like I was right. The problem was that I got slipped by 3 pips! Just bad luck I guess. I took a good breakeven trade although it should have been a small winner. After the next plays yielded a small win and a scratch, I was once again slipped for 3 pips when trying to close out at breakeven. Bummer! I finally caught the next move with 2 parts worth a total of 4R.
I took a couple trades that were not good, and got some unlucky slippage, and I also failed to maximize profit on a winner that came after some of that frustration, which led me to seek greater profit instead of locking in the solid win that I had. Tomorrow I will make sure to analyze whether a trade is being taken and managed for emotional maintenance or for reasons associated with price action.
Today's result: +1R
I took a couple trades that were not good, and got some unlucky slippage, and I also failed to maximize profit on a winner that came after some of that frustration, which led me to seek greater profit instead of locking in the solid win that I had. Tomorrow I will make sure to analyze whether a trade is being taken and managed for emotional maintenance or for reasons associated with price action.
Today's result: +1R
Saturday, November 6, 2010
Coincidence...?
One thing I enjoy in life is bizarre coincidences. There are coincidences in life every day if you're looking out for them, but some of them are just weird. Occasionally, I think it's fun to share some that seem impossible. So here goes: a couple days ago I turned on the TV and then went to start a fire in the wood stove. I opened up the local newspaper to start crumbling it up for the fire and I read a picture caption "so and so, a local, dresses in a hot dog suit" and at the EXACT same moment there was some dumb sitcom on TV where the girl said "some guy dressed in a hot dog suit" ... yeah, that's all. But how often do you see or hear the words "hot dog suit" and what are the chances it will be at the same moment of the same day?
Friday, November 5, 2010
Much Better Control
Today I showed much better patience and control over my overtrading habit. I picked up a small win just prior to the NFP release and then I pretty much knew I would be on the sidelines for a while. I did see what looked like easy opportunity dropping down to the 5-second chart while price was going nutso after the release, but I stayed away. About a half hour later, after some consolidation, I did see opportunity but it just wasn't quite right. I'm not sure if I was being disciplined or overly-cautious, because it did yield a good move. I was fine with passing it up and not chasing price, knowing that in time I would get another chance. I did get another chance but entered late and got retailed out. I made another attempt at the same setup but when it didn't work quickly, I scratched the trade. I finally got the setup I was looking for later on, I knew I was on the wholesale side of the trade, and got a good move. I feel really proud that I waited for what I wanted, and didn't feel the need to play every swing on the chart. I only really run into trouble when I take dumb entries and revenge trade. I didn't get greedy with my exit, and it turns out that I exited only 1 pip from the top of the move.
Today's results: +4R
Today's results: +4R
Thursday, November 4, 2010
Still Overtrading
Another losing day. At least it was with 1/4 size so not much damage done, but I am still overtrading. I had some good trades, but I still had 2 revenge trades and 2 trades that were not part of the plan. Another trade would have been profitable, but just as it was reaching a take-profit point, my computer froze. A couple days ago I had to do a Windows overlay and since then my computer has been really slow starting up and then the internet won't connect for a few minutes. So I got back and had been stopped out. That was really a bummer because there was a valid setup going the other way, so I took a loss AND missed out on a good trade! Other losses were due to taking weak setups. I jumped on way too late on a few and went countertrend on a few more. Then I took a few breakout guesses when price was clearly ranging and hadn't actually broken out yet--so naturally I was stopped when price went back into the range.
When I do my back testing, I find only 2 or 3 good setups per theoretical trading session. Why, then, am I taking 15 trades? Emotional attachment, boredom, and trying to force results. I'm getting better, but it's a painful struggle.
When I do my back testing, I find only 2 or 3 good setups per theoretical trading session. Why, then, am I taking 15 trades? Emotional attachment, boredom, and trying to force results. I'm getting better, but it's a painful struggle.
Wednesday, November 3, 2010
Lowest Range Since...?
I have no edge in these market conditions. Today's movement consisted of a 23-pip range. Well, it's hard to make money when price doesn't actually go anywhere. I need to find out a way to identify these days before I have a string of losers. The thing is, both yesterday and today, there seemed like good movement prior to the London/NY overlap, but as soon as the session started, it just stopped. I thought this method had an edge. It only does if the euro actually moves, though, which it usually does. But it's like anything else in trading--today you should do this but tomorrow you should do that. Last time it did this but this time it will do that. It looks like it's about to do this but it's really not. Except for the next time, when it does. I find it really hard to develop my edge when everything is always changing and nothing is constant except uncertainty.
Anyway, I've reached a drawdown point where it's dumb to just keep throwing money away. I'm going to cut my position size 3/4 and try to have a winning day. Of course, volatility will be huge tomorrow and I'll probably kill it and wish I hadn't cut down size. But that's trading.
Today's results: -6R
Anyway, I've reached a drawdown point where it's dumb to just keep throwing money away. I'm going to cut my position size 3/4 and try to have a winning day. Of course, volatility will be huge tomorrow and I'll probably kill it and wish I hadn't cut down size. But that's trading.
Today's results: -6R
Tuesday, November 2, 2010
Tough start to the blog!
Today was a pretty tough day for my style of trading. Price just chopped around in a 30-pip range and never went anywhere. Every move faded all the way back. There was no order flow today. Maybe because it's election day but I didn't think that would have a huge impact on liquidity. I find it very difficult to trade red-green-red-green-red-green candle sequences. If there were ever 2 green candles in a row there was a big red candle following. Of course, now that I finally called it a day (way too late) I get a great setup which would have yielded a great move (of 15 pips, huge, right?!) but that's trading...
Today's results: -7.5R
Today's results: -7.5R
Monday, November 1, 2010
WHAT I'M LOOKING FOR
I should share what kind of setup I'm using and what I look for on a day-to-day basis. As I make more posts, I'll add more details and screenshots. I start with a 1-minute candlestick chart and add some shorter-term and longer-term moving averages. I also add a 15-period Bollinger band to help show volatility and to frame price action. I then mark up my charts with longer-term support and resistance levels.
I'm looking for setups with the trend only. I may jump on a trend early if I believe it has just changed, but I avoid taking counter-trend trades (picking exact tops/bottoms). I wait for the moving averages to come together and then separate in the direction of the trend. I jump on board when this separation occurs. This method follows the flow of orders and if there is evidence of trapped retail traders picking a top/bottom then it usually adds to the surge of order flow. I try to avoid making longer-term predictions--I'm really just scalping the initial reaction of "has the trend ended? maybe...oh no, it hasn't!" and then get out. Going along with this surge of order flow helps me use a very small stop loss, thereby using higher leverage with low capital risk per position.
I'm looking for setups with the trend only. I may jump on a trend early if I believe it has just changed, but I avoid taking counter-trend trades (picking exact tops/bottoms). I wait for the moving averages to come together and then separate in the direction of the trend. I jump on board when this separation occurs. This method follows the flow of orders and if there is evidence of trapped retail traders picking a top/bottom then it usually adds to the surge of order flow. I try to avoid making longer-term predictions--I'm really just scalping the initial reaction of "has the trend ended? maybe...oh no, it hasn't!" and then get out. Going along with this surge of order flow helps me use a very small stop loss, thereby using higher leverage with low capital risk per position.
Welcome to Whipplebox Scalping!
I've decided to start posting on this site because my GoDaddy hosting is about to expire. I used to want to pay for hosting but that was doing more than just journaling my trades. Since that's really the only functionality I need, I'm just going to use this free site instead.
I'm going to show how I scalp using a moving average rainbow and price action. I feel that it is a simple method that goes along with the trend and with the money. I trade like a sniper just sitting and waiting for my setup to occur. I'm having discipline problems lately and need some accountability and want reader feedback.
I'm going to show how I scalp using a moving average rainbow and price action. I feel that it is a simple method that goes along with the trend and with the money. I trade like a sniper just sitting and waiting for my setup to occur. I'm having discipline problems lately and need some accountability and want reader feedback.
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